Will Christmas be cancelled?

24 June 2020] It might only be June but the ‘C’ word is on the mind of some retailers already. That’s Christmas, not Coronavirus by the way.

How the next six months look is a huge unknown. Social distance will become the craic killer for sure, with Christmas parties and festive gatherings a casualty. If we’re lucky, we’ll be allowed to visit friends and families in their homes, and if we’re not, we may get used to cold, wet garden parties.

The Government Job Retention scheme is set to end in October, so the run up to Christmas will be financially worrying for many people and the looming recession is set to be the deepest ever experienced. Matt Botham, strategic insight director at Kantar stresses that Christmas has an element of protection against recession that other seasons lack. “The easiest point of comparison is 2008/2009, and we didn’t pull back too much on Christmas. We still spent a higher amount at Christmas relative to the rest of the year.”

Alcohol sales reach £100m

There are a few things that are very likely to happen, regardless of the spread of Covid 19. According to Botham, “one is spending more on food and drink. Another is trading up to premium private label, whether that’s going to a more expensive retailer or buying top-tier lines like Sainsbury’s Taste the Difference. Alcohol is another thing that always does really well.” If this lockdown is anything to go by, alcohol sales will skyrocket again if there’s a winter shutdown. Figures released this week estimated we spent almost £100 million on take-home alcohol in the last 12 weeks in NI.

Advertising at Christmas is also likely to be impacted by the changed landscape. With huge production costs and months of planning, big budget Christmas commercials like those from John Lewis in recent years, may be a thing of the past. With many unknowns, brands will need campaigns that are reactive and carefully measured against the current mood of the nation, striking the right tone so far in advance may be tricky.

Out of Home to the rescue

Luckily however, Outdoor is the hero again. Production is much simpler and cheaper than other media e.g. TV, while the shorter turnaround times can add the flexibility brands require. Digital OOH is the most reflexive and accountable of all, with campaign changes and turnaround in a matter of hours. Regardless of what external influences are happening, that leaves Outdoor in a strong position with high quality formats in locations that saw strong audiences, even at the peak of the NI shutdown.